India’s Wholesale Inflation Jumps to 38-Month High of 3.88% in March as Crude Oil Prices Surge

New Delhi, April 15, 2026 – India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) surged to a provisional 3.88% year-on- year in March 2026, the highest level in 38 months, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry today. This sharp acceleration from February’s 2.13% was driven almost entirely by a dramatic 36.16% month-on-month spike in crude petroleum and natural gas prices.
The official release highlighted that prices of crude petroleum and natural gas rose sharply compared to February, with crude petroleum alone jumping 49.10% on a monthly basis in the primary articles category. Minerals edged up 0.12%. These energy costs, which carry significant weight in the WPI basket, overwhelmed softer trends in food articles and non-food items.
The spike aligns with global oil market turmoil triggered by escalating conflict in West Asia. India’s crude oil basket, which had averaged around $69 per barrel in February, climbed well above $100 and touched peaks near $146-156 per barrel mid-month amid supply fears. With India importing over 90% of its oil needs, much of it from West Asia, the higher prices are already inflating the country’s annual import bill by tens of billions of dollars. 
Economists caution that while retail CPI inflation remained moderate at 3.4% in March, producer-level pressures could soon feed into consumer prices and transportation costs if global crude stays elevated. The data underscores India’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks in energy markets and may complicate monetary policy decisions in the coming months.